Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class X-ray flares likely, rising slight chance of solar radiation storms. Peak slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm G1 into the new UTC week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity fell to low, with only occasional Common-class flares observed. These flares peaked at 06/1021UTC from the largest and most complex region on the Sun, with the cadence and magnitude of flares from this region now much-reduced compared with earlier in the past UTC week.

There are up to eight regions on the facing side of the Sun. The largest and most complex region of recent days has shown further changes in the period, with its trailing portion becoming more compressed and combining with an observed proliferation of spots here and in the centre of the group. These trends may yet mean that further large flares again develop. Other main regions of note lay in the southeast and northeast, with the latter becoming more visible as a magnetically bipolar group as it crossed onto the facing side.

A large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in satellite imagery heading northeast into the start of this 24-hour period, however this has been triangulated to the far side to no effect at Earth. 'Prominence eruptions' (arcs of plasma leaving the Sun) from the northwest at 06/1700UTC, and at 06/2300UTC from the southeast are equally not expected to affect Earth, with no new Earth-bound CMEs therefore observed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed ongoing fast wind activity, although the feature responsible is no longer easily visible in extreme UV imagery.

The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline in the period from strong to elevated by the period's end. The number of particles in the solar wind was level within background. The associated magnetic field was also at background, with the north-south component erratic but with an overall drift from being co-aligned to more anti-aligned with Earth's field over the UTC day (to increasing geomagnetic effect).

The net result of the above solar wind measures was for rising geomagnetic activity, starting quiet and peaking below Minor storm G1.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate-class flares are likely throughout, with a slight chance of Strong-class. Previous simplification in the largest sunspot region has slowed, and although there are few recent examples, it remains the most likely source of significant flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The geomagnetic forecast carries lower than average confidence. On balance, the period should be most reliably quiet to start and end the four days, with an intervening slight chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 from any CME glance(s) and the onset of a new fast wind.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The risk of solar radiation storms and S-scale events rises slightly in the four days as the most complex sunspot region moves ever-westward, however the magnitude of this rise has again been damped slightly to account for changes in the group itself. There are no other significant contributors to this risk.