Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Continued enhancement to the aurora is likely into the 16 September due to ongoing fast solar winds. This could bring some potential for visible aurora to northern parts of the UK and similar geomagnetic latitudes, but the extent and timing of any aurora is low confidence. Activity is expected to generally decline in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
Continued enhancement to the aurora is likely into the 16 September UTC due to ongoing fast solar winds. This could bring some potential for visible aurora to southernmost parts of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, but the extent and timing of any aurora is low confidence. Activity is expected to generally decline in the coming days.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1 Minor Storms day 1 (16 Sep), with fast solar winds then easing.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with occasional small Common-class flares observed. There are eight sunspot regions on the disc, with the majority of these in the eastern hemisphere. The largest of these is the simple bipolar region in the southeast, however this does have potential for further complexity to become apparent as this moves to a less oblique viewing angle. This has a couple of further small new regions nearby, that are also showing some apparent growth as they move into a clearer view. The other regions are mainly small and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the ongoing fast winds from a large coronal hole although this perhaps included some portion of a weak glancing CME at first. Solar wind speeds were Elevated to Strong, rising from 600km/s to 700-750km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was Moderate until 15/2000UTC but then became Weak. The north-south component was variable between Moderate positive (north) and negative (south) orientations but also became Weak after 15/2000 UTC. Geomagnetic activity mainly Active (Kp4), but with a G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) interval 15/1200-1500 UTC, and a further Active interval subsequently upgraded to be G1 Minor Storm 16/0000-0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely, but with a chance of rising to Moderate with isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Ongoing fast wind influence is expected day 1 (16 Sep) before easing through the period. With no further sources of enhancement forecast, geomagnetic activity is otherwise forecast to be ease from Unsettled to Active, to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled by the end of day 1 (16 Sep), with a decreasing chance of Active intervals through the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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