Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near Background levels over the next few days. A coronal hole fast wind is anticipated to arrive later on 17 April, bringing an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity into the coming weekend.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near Background levels over the next few days. A coronal hole fast wind is anticipated to arrive later on 17 April, bringing an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity into the coming weekend.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: No significant activity.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Very Low.
There are currently four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest is a bipolar region in the northwest quadrant with further slight overall decay evident in recent imagery. A region approaching south centre disc, mainly comprises a modest size spot with most of its small peripheral spots having now decayed. Another small, simple unipolar region is also approaching the south centre disc. On the eastern limb, there is an active region which appears to be developing, although the viewing angle makes accurate analysis uncertain.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are forecast, a CME from the northeastern limb is currently being analysed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed slow, erratic waning coronal hole influence. Solar wind speeds declined from Slightly Elevated, 420-470km/s, to Background, around 370km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component also Weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Very Low, with a slight chance of an isolated Moderate class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the forecast. Solar winds have reduced under waning coronal hole influence and are now at Background. Further brief weak enhancements remain possible through days 1-2 (14-15 Apr) from a small southern coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled (Kp0-3) intervals, and just the slight chance of an isolated Active (Kp4) interval. During day 4 (17 Apr) activity is likely to increase as a returning coronal hole begins to become geoeffective, perhaps with a chance of reaching G1/Minor Storm by the end of the day, although this is more likely into the following day (18 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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