East Howe (Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole) weather

Headline:

Sunny spells and some showers today.

Today:

Early rain in the east quickly clearing, leaving a morning of sunshine and a scattering of showers, mainly in the west. The showers becoming more widespread throughout the afternoon, potentially turning heavy in places. Feeling warm in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

Tonight:

A continuation of clear spells and scattered showers this evening. The showers becoming mainly confined to western areas overnight. A cooler night than last night. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

Thursday:

A largely dry and bright day for many with sunny spells. A few showers possible, mainly towards the west. Temperatures nearer average. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Dry start Friday but outbreaks of rain likely later. Rain clears overnight leaving a largely dry and bright weekend, with sunny spells, although some nighttime fog possible. Temperatures near average.

High pressure will likely be in place over southern UK through the first few days of this period. This means plenty of dry weather to be had here, albeit with some chilly nights and overnight and morning fog in places. In the north, a rather more changeable pattern will continue, with occasional rain and windy conditions at times. Broadly changeable weather patterns look to continue through to mid-month, with ridges of high pressure extending from the southwest, interspersed by Atlantic frontal systems. These could be associated with quite deep and fast-moving depressions, bringing the potential for windy weather more widely, but perhaps more likely in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or slightly above normal overall, but with some day to day oscillations.

Quite an uncertain period of weather, with earlier signals of widely wetter than normal weather looking less likely. The second half of October will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall and in the absence of any particularly strong trends or signals, something close to climatology is preferred. This means the wettest and at times windiest weather is more likely in the west and northwest and relatively drier conditions more likely towards the south and east. With a westerly type considered most likely, this would support temperatures remaining close to or a little above average overall. However, there is a chance that more slowly evolving weather patterns develop, which could either lead to longer drier spells more widely or rainfall accumulating in climatologically drier areas.