Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
<5%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
3°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
3°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
5
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
8
|
ESE
9
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
10
|
E
10
|
E
10
|
E
11
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
13
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
10
|
11
|
12
|
15
|
17
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
25
|
27
|
25
|
24
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
94%
|
87%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
90%
|
91%
|
91%
|
92%
|
92%
|
92%
|
89%
|
| UV | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
13
|
E
14
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
16
|
E
15
|
E
15
|
E
14
|
E
14
|
E
13
|
E
13
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
E
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
28
|
29
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
31
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
26
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
25
|
24
|
22
|
22
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
89%
|
91%
|
92%
|
93%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
98%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
90%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
9
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
8
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
7
|
ENE
6
|
ENE
6
|
E
6
|
ESE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
22
|
23
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
6
|
ESE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
ESE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
13
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
96%
|
94%
|
92%
|
90%
|
87%
|
87%
|
89%
|
92%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
95%
|
97%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
7°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
7°
|
7°
|
8°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SSE
7
|
SE
7
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SSE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
96%
|
94%
|
93%
|
91%
|
88%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
92%
|
93%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
7°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
8°
|
7°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
5°
|
4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
7
|
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
ESE
7
|
SE
8
|
SE
7
|
ESE
6
|
SE
7
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
12
|
13
|
15
|
16
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
91%
|
86%
|
92%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
8°
|
9°
|
8°
|
8°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
6
|
SE
6
|
SE
7
|
SE
8
|
SSE
10
|
SSE
9
|
SSE
8
|
SSE
9
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
12
|
14
|
16
|
19
|
20
|
17
|
18
|
17
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
91%
|
88%
|
92%
|
94%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Towcester Racecourse weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy and breezy with a little rain and hill sleet.
An extensively cloudy start, with some icy patches possible, most likely across the Peak District. Soon becoming dry, however cloudy conditions may persist for many, with some limited late brighter spells possible in the south. Maximum temperature 8 °C.
Becoming overcast with rain moving slowly northwards, into the south of the region by the morning. Winds light and variable but breezy along the coast. Turning colder again by dawn. Minimum temperature 2 °C.
Staying mainly cold and cloudy, with easterly winds continuing. Further periods of rain making gradual progress northwards, giving a transient snow and ice risk at times over hills. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Staying mainly cold and cloudy, with easterly winds continuing. Further periods of rain making gradual progress northwards, giving a transient snow and ice risk at times over hills.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: