Abergavenny Castle (Monmouthshire) weather

Headline:

Chilly this week with occasional showers, locally wintry on hills.

This Evening and Tonight:

Showers developing in the north and west this evening, these becoming more widespread overnight. Some snow and hail is possible, mainly over the hills. Frost and ice possible away from windward coasts. Brisk northerly winds on Irish Sea coasts. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Wednesday:

A changeable day with broken cloud, brief sunny intervals and a chance of showers. These could be heavy and wintry, especially over hills. Brisk northerly winds in the west. Chilly. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Staying on the cold side through this period with overnight frosts possible. A mixture of cloud, sunny/clear intervals and showers, wintry on hills, though these easing by the weekend.

The dominant area of high pressure will gradually drift away to the E of the UK through the early part of next week. So initially there should be a good deal of dry weather with plenty of sunshine by day, but still some noticeably chilly nights with frost fairly widespread. The odd fog patch is possible in the north, and a brisk breeze across the south will make it feel notably chilly here. Beyond that we will likely to see a gradual transition to less settled conditions. So rain or showers at times, mostly focussed across the south at first, then more widely later. With winds turning to the south it will become much milder, possibly very mild in places for a time.

Confidence is low, but through the end of March changeable weather patterns are most likely. This means periods of unsettled, wet and windy weather interspersed with some drier and brighter spells. Into early April, there may be a transition to more-frequent drier and more settled spells. Temperatures will probably be above average overall.