Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
40%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
16
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
21
|
21
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
97%
|
| UV | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
50%
|
80%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
60%
|
50%
|
40%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
10%
|
10%
|
40%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
16
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
12
|
E
13
|
E
14
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
21
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
17
|
19
|
21
|
22
|
24
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
80%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-4°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
16
|
E
17
|
ENE
19
|
E
20
|
ENE
20
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
24
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
27
|
ENE
27
|
ENE
27
|
ENE
27
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
26
|
ENE
25
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
28
|
29
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
36
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
38
|
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-10°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-9°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-8°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-7°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
25
|
ENE
24
|
ENE
24
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
23
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
22
|
ENE
21
|
ENE
20
|
ENE
20
|
ENE
19
|
ENE
19
|
ENE
18
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
17
|
ENE
16
|
ENE
16
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
36
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
33
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
28
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
26
|
25
|
25
|
23
|
23
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
96%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
96%
|
95%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
94%
|
95%
|
96%
|
97%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-6°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
16
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
15
|
ENE
14
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
13
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
12
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
ENE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
22
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
| Humidity |
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ENE
10
|
ENE
10
|
ENE
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
13
|
SE
12
|
ESE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
17
|
16
|
17
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
| Visibility (description) |
P
|
P
|
P
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
P
|
M
|
| Humidity |
100%
|
100%
|
99%
|
98%
|
93%
|
92%
|
96%
|
96%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
3°
|
3°
|
2°
|
2°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
11
|
E
11
|
E
11
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
13
|
ESE
12
|
ESE
10
|
ESE
11
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
16
|
16
|
15
|
19
|
19
|
17
|
17
|
16
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
P
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
96%
|
90%
|
88%
|
95%
|
95%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Bell Craig weather map
View the weather with our interactive map
Cloudy with rain and hill snow on Wednesday. Drier later.
Cloudy evening in the east with outbreaks of rain and hill snow, staying dry in the southwest. Cloud and outbreaks of rain and hill snow spread to all parts overnight. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
Cloudy with rain and hill snow in the morning. This clears north through the afternoon allowing most areas to remain dry. Showers into the east again through the evening. Maximum temperature 6 °C.
Cold and windy with showers in the east, wintry at times especially on hills. The Southwest will stay drier with the best of any brightness. Windy at times.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: