Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts
Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research.
Read more| Time |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | |||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
≥95%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
2°
|
2°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-5°
|
-5°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-4°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
27
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
27
|
ESE
26
|
ESE
27
|
ESE
27
|
ESE
28
|
ESE
27
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
49
|
48
|
49
|
48
|
46
|
45
|
44
|
45
|
45
|
45
|
46
|
46
|
47
|
47
|
47
|
47
|
47
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
| Humidity |
89%
|
90%
|
87%
|
91%
|
88%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
83%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
| UV | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
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01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
≥95%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
≥95%
|
90%
|
90%
|
90%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
40%
|
40%
|
30%
|
20%
|
10%
|
20%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
-3°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
27
|
SE
27
|
SE
26
|
SE
26
|
SE
25
|
SE
25
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
25
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
ESE
24
|
E
24
|
E
23
|
E
23
|
E
22
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
46
|
45
|
46
|
44
|
44
|
43
|
43
|
43
|
42
|
42
|
42
|
42
|
43
|
43
|
42
|
42
|
41
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
39
|
37
|
35
|
| Visibility (description) |
M
|
M
|
M
|
M
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
87%
|
86%
|
86%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
82%
|
78%
|
79%
|
78%
|
77%
|
77%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
74%
|
73%
|
71%
|
69%
|
67%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
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02:00
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03:00
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04:00
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05:00
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06:00
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07:00
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08:00
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09:00
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10:00
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11:00
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12:00
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13:00
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14:00
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15:00
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16:00
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17:00
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18:00
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19:00
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20:00
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21:00
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22:00
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23:00
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
3°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
-2°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
E
21
|
E
20
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
E
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
18
|
ESE
19
|
E
18
|
E
19
|
E
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
19
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
21
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
34
|
33
|
33
|
32
|
31
|
30
|
31
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
| Humidity |
66%
|
67%
|
67%
|
67%
|
67%
|
68%
|
68%
|
69%
|
71%
|
71%
|
70%
|
73%
|
75%
|
74%
|
76%
|
74%
|
76%
|
77%
|
76%
|
76%
|
76%
|
77%
|
76%
|
77%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
60%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
80%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
4°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
-2°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
-1°
|
-1°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
20
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
21
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
35
|
35
|
35
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
38
|
38
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
39
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
38
|
| Visibility (description) |
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
VG
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
77%
|
76%
|
78%
|
79%
|
80%
|
80%
|
82%
|
81%
|
82%
|
82%
|
82%
|
82%
|
83%
|
83%
|
83%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
84%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
01:00
|
02:00
|
03:00
|
04:00
|
05:00
|
06:00
|
07:00
|
08:00
|
09:00
|
10:00
|
11:00
|
12:00
|
13:00
|
14:00
|
15:00
|
16:00
|
17:00
|
18:00
|
19:00
|
20:00
|
21:00
|
22:00
|
23:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
70%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
60%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
22
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
23
|
ESE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
ESE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
24
|
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
36
|
37
|
37
|
36
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
38
|
39
|
39
|
40
|
39
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
39
|
38
|
39
|
39
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
37
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
85%
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
86%
|
86%
|
87%
|
88%
|
89%
|
88%
|
88%
|
89%
|
| UV | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
0°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
23
|
SE
23
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
22
|
SE
21
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
36
|
34
|
33
|
34
|
33
|
30
|
30
|
29
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
89%
|
91%
|
91%
|
91%
|
90%
|
89%
|
92%
|
92%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Time |
00:00
|
03:00
|
06:00
|
09:00
|
12:00
|
15:00
|
18:00
|
21:00
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather symbols | ||||||||
| Chance of precipitation |
40%
|
30%
|
30%
|
20%
|
20%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
| Temperature (°C) |
6°
|
5°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
6°
|
| Feels like temperature (°C) |
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
1°
|
| Wind direction and speed (mph) |
SE
19
|
SE
17
|
SE
17
|
SE
18
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
20
|
SE
22
|
| Wind gust (mph) |
26
|
26
|
26
|
30
|
31
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
| Visibility (description) |
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
G
|
| Humidity |
92%
|
93%
|
92%
|
91%
|
86%
|
84%
|
87%
|
90%
|
| UV | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
Eday Youth Hostel weather map
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Cloudy, windy and cold with rain, sleet and snow.
The day will be cloudy and cold with a strong southeast wind. Rain and sleet over Orkney will turn increasingly to rain as sleet and snow continue over Shetland. Maximum temperature 3 °C.
The night will continue cloudy and windy with rain at times over Orkney. The sleet and snow over Shetland will turn increasingly to rain and sleet later. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
Further rain and some sleet at times over Orkney but mostly dry with the chance of an odd shower over Shetland. Breezy. Maximum temperature 4 °C.
Mostly dry with light winds Saturday. Patchy rain will accompany a freshening wind Saturday. The rain will become more widespread Sunday.
Updated:
Cyclonic patterns are expected to dominate across the UK during mid-February. Frontal systems over the Atlantic are likely to approach the UK at times, tending to become slow moving as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the northeast. This will result in showers or longer spells of rain spreading across the UK, these heavy at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be highest in parts of the west, including across areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, snow is possible across northern England and Scotland, mainly over high ground. Strong winds could develop in places, especially coasts. Temperatures will probably be close to normal overall, with any cold conditions more likely in the north.
Updated:
Changeable conditions are expected across the UK during this period. Low pressure systems will probably dominate, meaning showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north. Periods of strong wind are also possible, especially around coasts. Temperatures will likely be close to average or slightly above overall.
Updated: